ผลต่างระหว่างรุ่นของ "ไข้หวัดใหญ่สเปน"

 

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Estimates for the death toll in China have varied widely,<ref name="ijima">{{cite book|author=Iijima, W.|title=The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918: New Perspectives|publisher=Routledge|year=2003|editor1=Phillips, H.|location=London and New York|pages=101–109|article=Spanish influenza in China, 1918–1920: a preliminary probe|editor2=Killingray, D.}}</ref>{{sfn|Patterson|Pyle|1991}} a range which reflects the lack of centralised collection of health data at the time due to the [[Warlord Era|Warlord period]]. The first estimate of the Chinese death toll was made in 1991 by Patterson and Pyle, which estimated China had a death toll of between 5 and 9 million. However, this 1991 study was later criticized by later studies due to flawed methodology, and newer studies have published estimates of a far lower mortality rate in China.<ref name=":2">{{Cite book|last=Killingray|first=David|url=https://books.google.com/?id=k79_8QX8n44C&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Spanish+Influenza+Pandemic+of+1918-1919:+New+Perspectives#v=onepage&q=local%20statistical%20data&f=false|title=The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: New Perspectives|last2=Phillips|first2=Howard|year=2003|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-134-56640-2|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|last=Iijima|first=Wataru|url=|title=The Spanish influenza in China, 1918–1920|date=1998|publisher=|isbn=|editor-last=|location=|pages=|language=English|oclc=46987588}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Langford|first=Christopher|date=2005|title=Did the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic Originate in China?|journal=Population and Development Review|language=en|volume=31|issue=3|pages=473–505|doi=10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00080.x|issn=1728-4457}}</ref> For instance, Iijima in 1998 estimates the death toll in China to be between 1 and 1.28 million based on data available from Chinese port-cities.<ref>{{Cite conference |conference=Spanish 'Flu 1918-1998: Reflections on the Influenza Pandemic of 1918 after 80 Years |location=Cape Town, South Africa |last=Iijima|first=Wataru|date=1998|title=The Spanish influenza in China, 1918-1920|url=https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/5409238}}</ref> As Wataru Iijima notes,<blockquote>"Patterson and Pyle in their study 'The 1918 Influenza Pandemic' tried to estimate the number of deaths by Spanish influenza in China as a whole. They argued that between 4.0 and 9.5 million people died in China, but this total was based purely on the assumption that the death rate there was 1.0–2.25 per cent in 1918, because China was a poor country similar to Indonesia and India where the mortality rate was of that order. Clearly their study was not based on any local Chinese statistical data."<ref>{{Cite book|last=Killingray|first=David|url=https://books.google.com/?id=k79_8QX8n44C&pg=PT139&lpg=PT139&dq=%22Patterson+and+Pyle+in+their+study+'The+1918+Influenza+Pandemic'+tried+to+estimate+the+number+of+deaths+by+Spanish+influenza+in+China+as+a+whole.+They+argued+that+between+4.0+and+9.5+million+people+died+in+China,+but+this+total+was+based+purely+on+the+assumption+that+the+death+rate+there+was+1.0-2.25+per+cent+in+1918,+because+China+was+a+poor+country+similar+to+Indonesia+and+India+where+the+mortality+rate+was+of+that+order.+Clearly+their+study+was+not+based+on+any+local+Chinese+statistical+data.%22#v=onepage&q=%22Patterson%20and%20Pyle%20in%20their%20study%20'The%201918%20Influenza%20Pandemic'%20tried%20to%20estimate%20the%20number%20of%20deaths%20by%20Spanish%20influenza%20in%20China%20as%20a%20whole.%20They%20argued%20that%20between%204.0%20and%209.5%20million%20people%20died%20in%20China,%20but%20this%20total%20was%20based%20purely%20on%20the%20assumption%20that%20the%20death%20rate%20there%20was%201.0-2.25%20per%20cent%20in%201918,%20because%20China%20was%20a%20poor%20country%20similar%20to%20Indonesia%20and%20India%20where%20the%20mortality%20rate%20was%20of%20that%20order.%20Clearly%20their%20study%20was%20not%20based%20on%20any%20local%20Chinese%20statistical%20data.%22&f=false|title=The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: New Perspectives|last2=Phillips|first2=Howard|date=2003|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-134-56640-2|language=en}}</ref> </blockquote>The lower estimates of the Chinese death toll are based on the low mortality rates that were found in Chinese port-cities (for example, Hong Kong) and on the assumption that poor communications prevented the flu from penetrating the interior of China.<ref name="ijima" /> However, some contemporary newspaper and post office reports, as well as reports from missionary doctors, suggest that the flu did penetrate the Chinese interior and that influenza was bad in some locations in the countryside of China.<ref name="palerider">{{Cite book|last=Spinney|first=Laura|title=Pale rider – The Spanish flu of 1918 and how it changed the world|year=2017|isbn=978-1-910702-37-6|pages=167–169|author-link=Laura Spinney}}</ref>