ผลต่างระหว่างรุ่นของ "ไข้หวัดใหญ่สเปน"

เพิ่มขึ้น 1,910 ไบต์ ,  8 เดือนที่ผ่านมา
 
=== ทั่วโลก ===
[[ไฟล์:W curve.png|thumb|upright=1|ความแตกต่างระหว่างอัตราการตายของไข้หวัดใหญ่ตามช่วงอายุ ของการระบาดทั่วปี 1918 และการระบาดตามปกติ - เสียชีวิตต่อ 100,000 คนในแต่ละกลุ่มอายุ, สหรัฐอเมริกา, ในช่วงก่อนการระบาดใหญ่ปี 1911–1917 (เส้นประ) และการระบาดทั่วปี 1918 (เส้นทึบ){{sfn|Taubenberger|Morens|2006|pp=15–22}}]]
<!--[[ไฟล์:W curve.png|thumb|upright=1|The difference between the influenza mortality age-distributions of the 1918 epidemic and normal epidemics&nbsp;– deaths per 100,000&nbsp;persons in each age group, United States, for the interpandemic years 1911–1917 (dashed line) and the pandemic year 1918 (solid line){{sfn|Taubenberger|Morens|2006|pp=15–22}}]]
[[ไฟล์:1918 spanish flu waves.gif|thumb|upright=1|Three pandemic wavesภาวะระบาดทั่วสามระลอก: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortalityอัตราการตายของไข้หว้ดใหญ่และปอดบวมรายสัปดาห์, United Kingdomสหราชอาณาจักร, 1918–1919{{sfn|CDC|2009}}]]
 
The Spanish flu infected aroundมีผู้ติดเชื้อไข้หวัดใหญ่สเปนประมาณ 500 millionล้านคนทั่วโลก people, about a quarter of the world's population.หรือประมาณหนึ่งในสามของประชากรโลก{{sfn|Taubenberger|Morens|2006}} Estimatesในการประเมินจำนวนผู้เสียชีวิตมีความแตกต่างกันเป็นอย่างมาก as to how many infected people died vary greatly, but the flu is regardless considered to be one of the [[List of pandemics|deadliest pandemics]] in history.ไข้หวัดใหญ่สเปนได้รับการพิจารณาว่าเป็นหนึ่งในโรคระบาดร้ายแรงที่มีผู้เสียชีวิตมากสุดในประวัติศาสตร์<ref>{{cite journal |url= https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/232955/WER8049_50_428WER8049_50_428-431.PDF |title=Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza (update of 14 October 2005). |journal=Weekly Epidemiological Record (Relevé ÉpidémiologiqueÉpidémiologique Hebdomadaire) |date=9 December 2005 |volume=80 |issue=49–5049–50 |pages=428–431428–431 |pmid=16372665}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1last1=Jilani |first1first1=TN |last2last2=Jamil |first2first2=RT |last3last3=Siddiqui |first3first3=AH |url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513241NBK513241/ |title=H1N1H1N1 Influenza (Swine Flu) |date=14 December 2019 |pmid=30020613 |work=[[National Center for Biotechnology Information|NCBI]] |access-date=11 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200312134634/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513241NBK513241/ |archive-date=12 March 2020 |url-status=live }}</ref>
 
An estimate fromการประมาณการในปี 1991 states that the virus killed betweenระบุว่าไวรัสฆ่าคนไประหว่าง 25 andและ 39&nbsp;million people.ล้านคน{{sfn|Patterson|Pyle|1991}} Aการประมาณการปี 2005 estimateระบุจำนวนผู้เสียชีวิตที่ put50 the death toll at probably 50&nbsp;millionล้านคน (less thanประมาณน้อยกว่า 3% of the global populationของประชากรโลก), andและอาจสูงถึง possibly100 as high as 100&nbsp;millionล้านคน (more thanมากกว่า 5%).{{sfn|Knobler|2005}}{{sfn|Johnson|Mueller|2002}} However,อย่างไรก็ตาม a reassessment inมีการประเมินใหม่ในปี 2018 estimatedคาดว่าจะมีผู้เสียชีวิตจำนวนประมาณ the17 total to be about 17&nbsp;million,ล้านคน<ref name=Spreeuwenberg>{{cite journal |last1last1=P. Spreeuwenberg |display-authors=etal|title=Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. |journal=[[American Journal of Epidemiology]] |volume=187|issue=12|pages=2561–25672561–2567|date=1 December 2018 |doi=10.1093/aje/kwy191kwy191 |pmid=30202996}}</ref> though this has been contested.แม้ว่าจะมีการโต้แย้งกันก็ตาม<ref>{{cite journal |first1first1=Siddharth |last1last1=Chandra |first2first2=Julia |last2last2=Christensen |title=Re: "reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic" |journal=Am. J. Epid. |volume=188 |issue=7 |pages=1404–14061404–1406 |date=2 March 2019 |doi=10.1093/aje/kwz044kwz044|pmid=30824934 }} and response {{cite journal |first1first1=Peter |last1last1=Spreeuwenberg |first2first2=Madelon |last2last2=Kroneman |first3first3=John |last3last3=Paget |url=https://postprint.nivel.nl/PPpp7146PPpp7146.pdf |title=The Authors Reply |journal=Am. J. Epid. |volume=188 |issue=7 |pages=1405–14061405–1406 |date=2 March 2019 |doi=10.1093/aje/kwz041kwz041 |pmid=30824908 |access-date=12 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200312204122/https://postprint.nivel.nl/PPpp7146PPpp7146.pdf |archive-date=12 March 2020 |url-status=live }}</ref> With a world population ofในเวลานั้นมีประชากรโลกประมาณ 1.8 toถึง 1.9 billion,พันล้านคน<ref>{{cite web |title=Historical Estimates of World Population |url=https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120709092946/https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php |url-status=dead |archive-date=9 July 2012 |access-date=29 March 2013}}</ref> theseประมาณการเหล่านี้ estimates correspond to betweenมีความสอดคล้องกันคืออยู่ระหว่าง 1 andและ 6 percent of the population.เปอร์เซ็นต์ของจำนวนประชากร
 
This flu killed more people inไข้หวัดใหญ่สายพันธุ์นี้คร่าชีวิตผู้คนใน 24&nbsp;weeks thanสัปดาห์ได้มากกว่า [[เอดส์|HIV/AIDS]] killed inในระยะเวลา 24 years.ปี{{sfn|Barry| 2004}} Theอย่างไรก็ตาม อัตราการตายต่อจำนวนประชากรยังน้อยกว่า[[Black Deathกาฬมรณะ]], which lasted much longer, killed a much higher percentage of the world's then smaller population.ซึ่งระบาดเป็นเวลาหลายร้อยปี<ref name="'Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely,' The Atlantic, Robinson Meyer, April 29, 2016">{{cite magazine |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/04/a-human-extinction-isnt-that-unlikely/480444/ |title=Human extinction isn't that unlikely |magazine=The Atlantic |author=Robinson Meyer |date=29 April 2016 |access-date=6 February 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160501051000/http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/04/a-human-extinction-isnt-that-unlikely/480444/ |archive-date=1 May 2016 |url-status=live }}</ref>
 
<!--The disease killed in many parts of the world. Some 12-17&nbsp;million people died [[1918 flu pandemic in India|in India]], about 5% of the population.<ref>{{Cite journal |pmc = 1118673|year = 2000|last1 = Mayor|first1 = S.|title = Flu experts warn of need for pandemic plans|journal = British Medical Journal|volume = 321|issue = 7265|pages = 852|pmid = 11021855|doi = 10.1136/bmj.321.7265.852}}</ref> The death toll in [[British Raj|India's British-ruled districts]] was 13.88&nbsp;million.{{sfn|Chandra|Kuljanin|Wray|2012}} Arnold (2019) estimates at least 12 million dead.<ref>David Arnold, "Dearth and the Modern Empire: The 1918–19 Influenza Epidemic in India," ''Transactions of the Royal Historical Society'' 29 (2019): 181-200. </ref>
 
Estimates for the death toll in China have varied widely,<ref name="ijima">{{cite book|author=Iijima, W.|title=The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918: New Perspectives|publisher=Routledge|year=2003|editor1=Phillips, H.|location=London and New York|pages=101–109|article=Spanish influenza in China, 1918–1920: a preliminary probe|editor2=Killingray, D.}}</ref>{{sfn|Patterson|Pyle|1991}} a range which reflects the lack of centralised collection of health data at the time due to the [[Warlord Era|Warlord period]]. The first estimate of the Chinese death toll was made in 1991 by Patterson and Pyle, which estimated China had a death toll of between 5 and 9 million. However, this 1991 study was later criticized by later studies due to flawed methodology, and newer studies have published estimates of a far lower mortality rate in China.<ref name=":2">{{Cite book|last=Killingray|first=David|url=https://books.google.com/?id=k79_8QX8n44C&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Spanish+Influenza+Pandemic+of+1918-1919:+New+Perspectives#v=onepage&q=local%20statistical%20data&f=false|title=The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: New Perspectives|last2=Phillips|first2=Howard|year=2003|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-134-56640-2|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|last=Iijima|first=Wataru|url=|title=The Spanish influenza in China, 1918–1920|date=1998|publisher=|isbn=|editor-last=|location=|pages=|language=English|oclc=46987588}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Langford|first=Christopher|date=2005|title=Did the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic Originate in China?|journal=Population and Development Review|language=en|volume=31|issue=3|pages=473–505|doi=10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00080.x|issn=1728-4457}}</ref> For instance, Iijima in 1998 estimates the death toll in China to be between 1 and 1.28 million based on data available from Chinese port-cities.<ref>{{Cite conference |conference=Spanish 'Flu 1918-1998: Reflections on the Influenza Pandemic of 1918 after 80 Years |location=Cape Town, South Africa |last=Iijima|first=Wataru|date=1998|title=The Spanish influenza in China, 1918-1920|url=https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/5409238}}</ref> As Wataru Iijima notes,<blockquote>"Patterson and Pyle in their study 'The 1918 Influenza Pandemic' tried to estimate the number of deaths by Spanish influenza in China as a whole. They argued that between 4.0 and 9.5 million people died in China, but this total was based purely on the assumption that the death rate there was 1.0–2.25 per cent in 1918, because China was a poor country similar to Indonesia and India where the mortality rate was of that order. Clearly their study was not based on any local Chinese statistical data."<ref>{{Cite book|last=Killingray|first=David|url=https://books.google.com/?id=k79_8QX8n44C&pg=PT139&lpg=PT139&dq=%22Patterson+and+Pyle+in+their+study+'The+1918+Influenza+Pandemic'+tried+to+estimate+the+number+of+deaths+by+Spanish+influenza+in+China+as+a+whole.+They+argued+that+between+4.0+and+9.5+million+people+died+in+China,+but+this+total+was+based+purely+on+the+assumption+that+the+death+rate+there+was+1.0-2.25+per+cent+in+1918,+because+China+was+a+poor+country+similar+to+Indonesia+and+India+where+the+mortality+rate+was+of+that+order.+Clearly+their+study+was+not+based+on+any+local+Chinese+statistical+data.%22#v=onepage&q=%22Patterson%20and%20Pyle%20in%20their%20study%20'The%201918%20Influenza%20Pandemic'%20tried%20to%20estimate%20the%20number%20of%20deaths%20by%20Spanish%20influenza%20in%20China%20as%20a%20whole.%20They%20argued%20that%20between%204.0%20and%209.5%20million%20people%20died%20in%20China,%20but%20this%20total%20was%20based%20purely%20on%20the%20assumption%20that%20the%20death%20rate%20there%20was%201.0-2.25%20per%20cent%20in%201918,%20because%20China%20was%20a%20poor%20country%20similar%20to%20Indonesia%20and%20India%20where%20the%20mortality%20rate%20was%20of%20that%20order.%20Clearly%20their%20study%20was%20not%20based%20on%20any%20local%20Chinese%20statistical%20data.%22&f=false|title=The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: New Perspectives|last2=Phillips|first2=Howard|date=2003|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-134-56640-2|language=en}}</ref> </blockquote>The lower estimates of the Chinese death toll are based on the low mortality rates that were found in Chinese port-cities (for example, Hong Kong) and on the assumption that poor communications prevented the flu from penetrating the interior of China.<ref name="ijima" /> However, some contemporary newspaper and post office reports, as well as reports from missionary doctors, suggest that the flu did penetrate the Chinese interior and that influenza was bad in some locations in the countryside of China.<ref name="palerider">{{Cite book|last=Spinney|first=Laura|title=Pale rider – The Spanish flu of 1918 and how it changed the world|year=2017|isbn=978-1-910702-37-6|pages=167–169|author-link=Laura Spinney}}</ref>
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